close
看不見的燃料給予未來更多保障
“Invisible fuel” promises more secure future
When energy economists gaze into their crystal balls to see what the world will look like in 20 years’ time, some things are clearer than others.
當能源經濟學家從水晶球預視二十年後世界會變成什麼模樣時，有些事情比其他要更加清晰。
Clearest of all is that the global population will grow and with it the world economy. As countries get richer, their demand for energy will rise, placing ever new strains on the planet’s natural resources. A closer look at forecasts for energy demand, however, reveals some surprising conclusions.
最明顯的是，世界人口將會增加，且經濟也會隨之增長。在各國變得更加富有後，它們對能源的需求也增加了，因而不斷給地球自然資源帶來新的壓力。然而，進一步觀察對能源需求的預測，我們會得出一些令人驚訝的結論。
According to a recent research, the total energy demand is growing: the world will need 35 percent more energy in 2040 than it does now. That growth rate pales in comparison with that of the world economy as a whole: global GDP will expand by 135 percent over the same period. What is more, in the world’s advanced economies – Europe, North America and Japan – energy demand will not grow at all.
根據近期的一份研究指出，總體能源需求持續在增加；到了2040年，世界能源需求量將比現在增加35%。此增長率如與世界經濟整體相比，根本不算什麼。同一時期，全球GDP將會增長135%。此外，在歐洲、北美、日本等先進國家經濟體，能源需求根本不會增長。
The reason for this is energy efficiency. The greatest source of energy in the future will be using it more efficiently. Huge amounts of energy will be saved in this way.
原因就是能源效率。未來最大的能源來源就是更加有效地利用能源。透過這種方式將可以節約大量的能源。
In the battle against climate change, renewables were long seen as the silver bullet. The argument was that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar power would reduce carbon emissions and thereby slow or even stop global warming, as well as curb consuming countries’ huge dependence on expensive imported oil and gas. But in the debate about our energy future, the theme of energy efficiency – called the “invisible fuel” by some – is taking on a new prominence. Consumers are starting to understand that the energy they do not use can have almost as much impact as the energy they do.
在與氣候變遷的對抗中，可再生能源一直被認為是一劑良方。理由就是用風力和太陽能代替化石燃料會降低碳排放，因而減緩甚至阻止全球變暖，並限制消費國對昂貴的進口石油和天然氣的高度依賴。但在關於能源未來的爭論中，能源效率的主題，也就是一些人所說的「隱形燃料」，將更加突出。消費者開始瞭解，他們沒有使用的能源幾乎與使用的能源會產生同樣的影響。
The result is a shift in thinking about everything from building design to street lighting. Big energy savings have been achieved by seemingly minor technological changes such as moving from gas boilers for space heating to heat pumps. The potential prize is enormous.
結果就是從建築設計到街道照明的理念都發生轉變。一個看似很小的技術變化就可以節約大量的能源，比如空間加熱的瓦斯鍋爐到加熱泵的轉變。潛在的收益是很大的。
A recent report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Germany found that the EU’s energy requirements could end up being 57 percent lower in 2050 than they were in 1990, offering the tantalizing prospect of €500 billion a year in energy savings.
德國弗勞恩霍夫協會系統與創新研究所最近的一份報告顯示，2050年歐盟的能源需求可能會比1990年還低57%，能源方面每年節約的資金可能達到誘人的5000億歐元程度。
Nonetheless, the problem is that there are still significant barriers. Also, it can be hard to measure success. The EU recently said it would not meet its target of saving 20 percent of its primary energy consumption by 2020, partly because of the “lack of appropriate tools for monitoring progress and measuring impacts on the member state level”.
不過，問題的關鍵在於，提高能源利用效率仍然面臨極大的阻礙。況且節能投資的成效也難以衡量。歐盟表示，若無法實現在2020年以前將主要能源消耗量縮減20%的目標，部分原因出於「缺乏成員國層面的監控節能進展以及評估節能措施造成影響的合適工具」。
There is another potential danger – the so-called “rebound effect”. If you save money on electricity by installing a heat pump, for example, but spend what you save on air travel, the improvement in energy efficiency is meaningless. The EU has identified rebound losses of 10-30 percent.
此外還有一個潛在風險—就是所謂的「反彈效應」。例如，假設你通過安裝加熱泵在電費上省了一筆，但把省下來的錢花在了乘坐飛機旅行上， 那麼這種能效提升將毫無意義。歐盟認為，反彈效應造成的能效損失在10%至30%之間。
Even so, these “investments” need government support to work. This is happening – on a large scale. In recent years, all the major energy-consuming countries have passed laws to encourage energy efficiency. The US has introduced new fuel-economy standards for vehicles; the EU has its target of reducing energy demand by 20 percent by 2020; Japan wants to cut electricity demand by 10 percent in 2030 compared to 2010; and China has a goal of cutting energy intensity by 16 percent between 2011 and 2015.
即便如此，在能效領域的「投資」需要政府支援才能真正發揮作用。這已經開始以較大的規模來推行了。近年來，所有主要的能源消費國都通過了促進能源利用率的法案。美國引入了針對汽車的燃料利用率新標準；歐盟的目標是在2020年以前將自身的能源需求規模縮減20%；日本希望在2030年實現電力需求較2010年下降10%；中國則定下了在2011至2015年間將單位產值能耗降低16%的目標。
Some policies are highly specific. In 2010, the EU adopted a directive on the energy performance of buildings. It requires all new buildings to be “nearly zero energy” by 2021. On a national scale, too, governments are coming up with evermore innovative ways of encouraging energy savings. Under the UK’s Green Deal scheme, for example, consumers can take out a loan for home improvement measures such as getting rid of an old boiler and pay it back through a surcharge on their electricity bills.
某些政策本身高度細化。2010年，歐盟施行了一項有關房屋能效的規定。該規定要求，所有新建房屋必須在2021年以前實現「淨能耗接近於零」。在國家的層級上，各國政府也採用了越來越多富有創意的辦法來鼓勵民眾節約能源。例如按照英國的Green Deal計畫，消費者可以為替換老舊鍋爐等房屋整修舉措申請貸款，並通過支付溢價電費的形式予以償還。
Although energy conservation is a big concern in the west, some parts of the world have made little or no progress. The abundance of fossil fuels in the Middle East and the low cost of energy – with heavily subsidized prices for petrol and gas – gives the region little incentive to husband resources. The IEA says the average efficiency of fossil fuel power generation in the Middle East is just 33 percent – 9 percent lower than in the west. That is why some are skeptical that global energy intensity – the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP – will come down drastically soon. Futurologist Jorgen Randers, in a report offering a global forecast for the next 40 years, expects energy intensity to fall by only one-third compared to 2010 – not enough to stop catastrophic climate change. Still, Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA’s executive director, believes: “The most secure energy is the barrel or megawatt we never have to use”.
雖然節約能源在西方是個引人關注的話題，世界上的某些地區在節能方面卻幾乎沒有取得任何進展。中東地區充裕的化石燃料資源以及低廉的能源成本—汽油和天然氣價格因為來自政府的大額補貼而處於低價位—導致該地區幾乎沒有動力來節約能源。國際能源機構表示，中東地區化石燃料發電的平均效率僅為33%，較西方國家低了9個百分點。這也正是為什麼某些人懷疑全球單位產值能耗—生產每單位GDP所需消耗的能源數量—能否在短時間內顯著下降。未來學家Jorgen Randers在一份預測未來40年全球面貌的報告中預計，單位產值能耗相對於2010年時僅會下降三分之一—不足以阻止災難性的氣候變化發生。但國際能源機構總幹事Maria van der Hoeven依然認為：「最安全可靠的能源是我們節約下來、永遠不必用到的石油或電力」。
“Invisible fuel” promises more secure future
When energy economists gaze into their crystal balls to see what the world will look like in 20 years’ time, some things are clearer than others.
當能源經濟學家從水晶球預視二十年後世界會變成什麼模樣時，有些事情比其他要更加清晰。
Clearest of all is that the global population will grow and with it the world economy. As countries get richer, their demand for energy will rise, placing ever new strains on the planet’s natural resources. A closer look at forecasts for energy demand, however, reveals some surprising conclusions.
最明顯的是，世界人口將會增加，且經濟也會隨之增長。在各國變得更加富有後，它們對能源的需求也增加了，因而不斷給地球自然資源帶來新的壓力。然而，進一步觀察對能源需求的預測，我們會得出一些令人驚訝的結論。
According to a recent research, the total energy demand is growing: the world will need 35 percent more energy in 2040 than it does now. That growth rate pales in comparison with that of the world economy as a whole: global GDP will expand by 135 percent over the same period. What is more, in the world’s advanced economies – Europe, North America and Japan – energy demand will not grow at all.
根據近期的一份研究指出，總體能源需求持續在增加；到了2040年，世界能源需求量將比現在增加35%。此增長率如與世界經濟整體相比，根本不算什麼。同一時期，全球GDP將會增長135%。此外，在歐洲、北美、日本等先進國家經濟體，能源需求根本不會增長。
The reason for this is energy efficiency. The greatest source of energy in the future will be using it more efficiently. Huge amounts of energy will be saved in this way.
原因就是能源效率。未來最大的能源來源就是更加有效地利用能源。透過這種方式將可以節約大量的能源。
In the battle against climate change, renewables were long seen as the silver bullet. The argument was that replacing fossil fuels with wind and solar power would reduce carbon emissions and thereby slow or even stop global warming, as well as curb consuming countries’ huge dependence on expensive imported oil and gas. But in the debate about our energy future, the theme of energy efficiency – called the “invisible fuel” by some – is taking on a new prominence. Consumers are starting to understand that the energy they do not use can have almost as much impact as the energy they do.
在與氣候變遷的對抗中，可再生能源一直被認為是一劑良方。理由就是用風力和太陽能代替化石燃料會降低碳排放，因而減緩甚至阻止全球變暖，並限制消費國對昂貴的進口石油和天然氣的高度依賴。但在關於能源未來的爭論中，能源效率的主題，也就是一些人所說的「隱形燃料」，將更加突出。消費者開始瞭解，他們沒有使用的能源幾乎與使用的能源會產生同樣的影響。
The result is a shift in thinking about everything from building design to street lighting. Big energy savings have been achieved by seemingly minor technological changes such as moving from gas boilers for space heating to heat pumps. The potential prize is enormous.
結果就是從建築設計到街道照明的理念都發生轉變。一個看似很小的技術變化就可以節約大量的能源，比如空間加熱的瓦斯鍋爐到加熱泵的轉變。潛在的收益是很大的。
A recent report by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Germany found that the EU’s energy requirements could end up being 57 percent lower in 2050 than they were in 1990, offering the tantalizing prospect of €500 billion a year in energy savings.
德國弗勞恩霍夫協會系統與創新研究所最近的一份報告顯示，2050年歐盟的能源需求可能會比1990年還低57%，能源方面每年節約的資金可能達到誘人的5000億歐元程度。
Nonetheless, the problem is that there are still significant barriers. Also, it can be hard to measure success. The EU recently said it would not meet its target of saving 20 percent of its primary energy consumption by 2020, partly because of the “lack of appropriate tools for monitoring progress and measuring impacts on the member state level”.
不過，問題的關鍵在於，提高能源利用效率仍然面臨極大的阻礙。況且節能投資的成效也難以衡量。歐盟表示，若無法實現在2020年以前將主要能源消耗量縮減20%的目標，部分原因出於「缺乏成員國層面的監控節能進展以及評估節能措施造成影響的合適工具」。
There is another potential danger – the so-called “rebound effect”. If you save money on electricity by installing a heat pump, for example, but spend what you save on air travel, the improvement in energy efficiency is meaningless. The EU has identified rebound losses of 10-30 percent.
此外還有一個潛在風險—就是所謂的「反彈效應」。例如，假設你通過安裝加熱泵在電費上省了一筆，但把省下來的錢花在了乘坐飛機旅行上， 那麼這種能效提升將毫無意義。歐盟認為，反彈效應造成的能效損失在10%至30%之間。
Even so, these “investments” need government support to work. This is happening – on a large scale. In recent years, all the major energy-consuming countries have passed laws to encourage energy efficiency. The US has introduced new fuel-economy standards for vehicles; the EU has its target of reducing energy demand by 20 percent by 2020; Japan wants to cut electricity demand by 10 percent in 2030 compared to 2010; and China has a goal of cutting energy intensity by 16 percent between 2011 and 2015.
即便如此，在能效領域的「投資」需要政府支援才能真正發揮作用。這已經開始以較大的規模來推行了。近年來，所有主要的能源消費國都通過了促進能源利用率的法案。美國引入了針對汽車的燃料利用率新標準；歐盟的目標是在2020年以前將自身的能源需求規模縮減20%；日本希望在2030年實現電力需求較2010年下降10%；中國則定下了在2011至2015年間將單位產值能耗降低16%的目標。
Some policies are highly specific. In 2010, the EU adopted a directive on the energy performance of buildings. It requires all new buildings to be “nearly zero energy” by 2021. On a national scale, too, governments are coming up with evermore innovative ways of encouraging energy savings. Under the UK’s Green Deal scheme, for example, consumers can take out a loan for home improvement measures such as getting rid of an old boiler and pay it back through a surcharge on their electricity bills.
某些政策本身高度細化。2010年，歐盟施行了一項有關房屋能效的規定。該規定要求，所有新建房屋必須在2021年以前實現「淨能耗接近於零」。在國家的層級上，各國政府也採用了越來越多富有創意的辦法來鼓勵民眾節約能源。例如按照英國的Green Deal計畫，消費者可以為替換老舊鍋爐等房屋整修舉措申請貸款，並通過支付溢價電費的形式予以償還。
Although energy conservation is a big concern in the west, some parts of the world have made little or no progress. The abundance of fossil fuels in the Middle East and the low cost of energy – with heavily subsidized prices for petrol and gas – gives the region little incentive to husband resources. The IEA says the average efficiency of fossil fuel power generation in the Middle East is just 33 percent – 9 percent lower than in the west. That is why some are skeptical that global energy intensity – the amount of energy consumed per unit of GDP – will come down drastically soon. Futurologist Jorgen Randers, in a report offering a global forecast for the next 40 years, expects energy intensity to fall by only one-third compared to 2010 – not enough to stop catastrophic climate change. Still, Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA’s executive director, believes: “The most secure energy is the barrel or megawatt we never have to use”.
雖然節約能源在西方是個引人關注的話題，世界上的某些地區在節能方面卻幾乎沒有取得任何進展。中東地區充裕的化石燃料資源以及低廉的能源成本—汽油和天然氣價格因為來自政府的大額補貼而處於低價位—導致該地區幾乎沒有動力來節約能源。國際能源機構表示，中東地區化石燃料發電的平均效率僅為33%，較西方國家低了9個百分點。這也正是為什麼某些人懷疑全球單位產值能耗—生產每單位GDP所需消耗的能源數量—能否在短時間內顯著下降。未來學家Jorgen Randers在一份預測未來40年全球面貌的報告中預計，單位產值能耗相對於2010年時僅會下降三分之一—不足以阻止災難性的氣候變化發生。但國際能源機構總幹事Maria van der Hoeven依然認為：「最安全可靠的能源是我們節約下來、永遠不必用到的石油或電力」。
全站熱搜
留言列表
